NH-Sen: Gregg to Commerce?!?

Holy shit if true:

The Obama administration has been floating the idea of naming Republican Sen. Judd Gregg (N.H.) to be Commerce Secretary, several Senate sources said Thursday.

The sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Gregg’s nomination was far from a done deal, but remains a serious possibility. Reached by phone, Gregg, the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, said he had no comment on whether he has been in talks with the White House about the post.

At first glance, this move might seem like TEH AWESOME – 60 SEATS0Rz! But believe it or not, I think this is actually bad for a lot of reasons. On the merits, Gregg is a conservative Republican – hardly the kind of guy I want running an important cabinet department. Of course, that’s neither here nor there for the purposes of SSP.

But electorally, it also troubles me. Gov. John Lynch would get to fill the vacancy, and he is very untrustworthy when it comes to matters of partisanship. He’s said ten times as many nice things about John McCain as he has about any Democrat. He’s regularly undermined Dems seeking elective office in New Hampshire, more than once supporting their Republican rivals (like GOP state Sen. Bob Odell). He’s just really not much a Dem.

In short, if there is any sitting Dem governor who might appoint a Republican in circumstances like this, it’s Lynch. At the very least, I think there’s almost no way he’d appoint Paul Hodes, who is our strongest candidate and a proud progressive. Lynch would very likely appoint a wishy-washy Lieberdem, perhaps even 2004 Lieberman national co-chair Katrina Swett (who briefly ran for Sununu’s seat last cycle).

These rumors may well amount to nothing. And even if they do pan out, Lynch could surprise us with a good pick, who with Franken would give us 60 seats in the Senate. But I don’t think the odds of that are high, and really, I’m not loving this.

UPDATE: As Populista points out, though, if this helps us pass the Employee Free Choice Act, then it’s worth it.

70 thoughts on “NH-Sen: Gregg to Commerce?!?”

  1. If she passes then try Gregg.  Either way it’s a win-win.  Gregg seems like the type who would be tolerable at commerce and it’s well worth the free Senate seat.

  2. What’s the difference between that and what Paterson did?  The more blue dogs the better, I guess.

    The trade would be worth it.  

  3. Gregg can’t do too much damage at Commerce and I doubt Lynch would pick a R. That would piss off the base TOO much, any Dem he picks is likely to want to keep the seat, thus they’d probably vote for EFCA and most other good stuff.

    Hence EFCA and other good stuff passes.

    Totally worth it if it happens but I am very skeptical it will.  

  4. Cabinet Secretaries ultimately do what The Boss tells them to.

    Even if it was a Blue Dog replacement, it would save valuable resources trying to unseat Gregg in 2010, which could be spent elsewhere.  And it would still mean more Democratic votes on issues.

  5. those are the three bills where we need the vote on cloture.  Even a Lieberdem will vote for these three bills.

    What has to be emphasized to Lynch is that he appoint a known Democrat, even Katrina Swett is barely acceptable.  

    If he appoints a “Republican”, it should be one in name only who will vote with the Democrats on basically everything, i.e. a Repub equivalent of Zell Miller.

  10. And I think Gregg will be offered, and take it. Think about it:

    * Why would he want the fight of his life after a long, long career without a tough challenge since 1992?

    * CoH is under a million right now, much less than Sununu at this time last cycle, iirc.

    * Gregg has been odd in his effusive praise for Obama in the past couple of weeks.

    * Gregg’s passion is fiscal/monetary policy, and especially entitlement “reform”.  Commerce makes, while not perfectly, some sense.

    * With Papa Sununu in charge of the NHGOP, this give John E. another shot at the senate.

    As for Lynch, I would expect a Democrat, even from him, but elwood makes a good case for old school yankee Republican former gov Walter Peterson.

  11. Asked earlier Thursday whether he’d ever been offered the Commerce job, Gregg told Politico: “I am not at liberty to discuss that.”

    Sounds like he’s under real consideration.  

  13. http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

    Buchanan met with National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman John Cornyn yesterday to discuss a potential Senate campaign, and was escorted by the retiring Sen. Mel Martinez.  

    Buchanan’s biggest asset is his personal wealth: When he first ran for the House in 2006, he spent $5.45 million of his own money into the race.  He would be able to, at least partially, self-finance a Senate campaign.

  14. Lynch seems so bipartisan that i can see him making a deal with Gregg that hed appoint a Republican. As Im sure the only way Gregg would leave the Senate is if hes assured he’ll be replaced by a Republican. And not an 80 year old Republican either or someone else with no intention or desire to run for it in 2010. Gregg could very well say, ‘appoint a Republican, Governor, who is able and will run, or Im staying put’..and Lynch could take the deal. Sure he could always go back on his word but hed lose alot of political goodwill that way (whod trust him afterwards then?) and he just doesnt seem like the kind of guy who would.

  15. I’d ideally prefer if governors in this situation appointed a senator of the same party as the outgoing one.

    But that’s not how the game is played in current politics.

  16. The main reason why Governor John Lynch isn’t running is because he doesn’t want to run against a popular incumbent and potentially lose both the Senate race and the governorship.

    But if he appointed himself to the Senate, he would definitely have a leg up over any competition, especially if Gregg is out of the picture. And we wouldn’t lose the governorship either; since New Hampshire has no Lt. Governor, state senate president Sylvia Larsen (D) would become governor.

    I think this pick makes a lot of sense for Obama and the Democratic Party. Which is exactly why Gregg probably won’t accept this appointment.

  17. we’d still be heavily favored to beat the interim senator in 2010.  Who would Lynch appoint?  Former congressmen Bass or Bradley?  Both have been shown to be politically weak and Paul Hodes would almost certainly challenge and beat either one of them.  Any other strong Republicans Lynch could screw us over with?  Because if it’s a state legislator then we’re basically handed this senate seat on a silver platter next year.

  18. This is the Politico.com article about Gregg’s possible appointment. Look what Kyl saids:

    Minority Whip Jon Kyl , R-Ariz., said he had not heard of Gregg being considered for Commerce but joked that it would be “a pretty sneaky, sneaky move to get a really good person as Commerce secretary and put us in a bind politically.”

    Gee, ya THINK, Jon? What a douche!

  19. Paul Hodes might be able to beat Gregg and he might not, it would be a 50-50 proposition at best.  Probably worse since we can’t expect the democratic wave to continue unabated in ’10 and Gregg has not committed any scandal.

    And I think it’s simply inappropriate for any Senator to try to bargain for his/her replacement.  I’m dissappointed to hear that Lynch has occasionally made nice noises about GOP office holders, but I don’t think that really implies that he’ll appoint a Republican.  can someone put together a list of our strongest office holders in NH.  Also as I reflexively mention every time someome suggests the idea, NO GOVERNOR SHOULD EVER APPOINT HIMSELF.  When Gov Wendy Anderson did it in 1976 (after Walter Mondale was elected) it led the very strong MN Democratic party to be demolished in 1978.  We lost both Senate seats and the Governor’s seat as the voters expressed utter revulsion to the idea.  I would hope every governor has done enough homework to know this.

    Here’s what I wrote on Nov. 15th:

    “i’ve been floating the idea of obama

    appointing a specter, mccain, or gregg to something to open up a democratic leaning seat and burnish his bipartisan cred”

    —————————————————————————–

    by: st paul sage @ Sat Nov 15, 2008 at 2:42 PM EST  

  20. Via Political Wire

    James Pindell, who has covered New Hampshire politics since 2002, tells Political Wire that the odds of Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) taking the job of secretary of commerce are currently 65-35 if offered.

    But Pindell notes that Gov. John Lynch (D), who would choose Gregg’s replacement in the Senate, “is the type of guy that would pick a Republican just because he is replacing a Republican and to bone up his bi-partisan credibility. Lynch has yet to comment on the issue — heck Gregg has yet to be appointed — but right now the money is on former Gov. Walter Peterson (R). He was chair of the ‘Republicans for Lynch’ committee, would vote with Democrats as much as Maine’s Senators do, and most likely wouldn’t run in 2010.”

    http://politicalwire.com/archi…

    I could live with a Snowe-like Republican who will not run in 2010.  I do wonder, however, what his likely position is on Employee Free Choice, as I think it’s the most likely piece of major legislation to be successfully filibustered.

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